How does the NBC News national polling average work?
Tracking the state of the race between President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Joe Biden, updated as polls are released. The NBC News National Polling Average is based on an unweighted average of the 10 most recent publicly released public opinion polls that NBC News deems reliable.
How are public polls listed on the FiveThirtyEight polls page?
Polls conducted after June 28, 2018, the date this page was published, are listed by the date that FiveThirtyEight collected them; polls conducted before then are listed under the last date that the poll was in the field. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown.
Where does NBC News get its voterfile data?
The figure can change as NBC News gathers new information. Source: TargetSmart provides individual-level voterfile data state-by-state, including ballot requests and early in-person/mail in-voting absentee early vote data. The NBC News Decision Desk independently analyzes and aggregates the data.
How reliable are the polls?
An organization’s polls are deemed reliable based on methodology (excluding interactive voice response phone polls and opt-in online polls), past performance and transparency. The latest polls from states with the potential to decide the election. Created with sketchtool.
How are state polling averages adjusted for national trends?
State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.
What is a partisanship poll?
Polls are considered partisan if they’re conducted on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, or PAC, super PAC, 501 (c) (4), 501 (c) (5) or 501 (c) (6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.